London spot gold XAUUSD recently spiked to 1611 which was a Gann square target. 1540 could be about it for the pullback on a close basis. The fundamentals are primarily the nearly worldwide short term zero or below real (inflation-adjusted) interest rates.
Gold has been up in nearly every national currency. In the 1970's it was common for gold bulls to refer to the daily advance/decline in all currencies. Of course, we don't have very many currencies left now since the Euro was born in 1990. The Yuan does not float so it doesn't count. The Swiss franc may become important again since it was removed from its peg to the Euro today.
Of course, inflation is picking up a bit in the past 3-4 months, so rates may be rising a bit. But gold will still find mostly zero or less real short term rates and will not likely be negatively impacted.
I have been invested in long term US Treasury during the past year, but I am now on the sidelines. Also many analysts feel that corporate bonds will be highly impacted--negatively-- in any recessionary environment since the credit rating of US and world corporate bonds has declined considerably.
One alternative is US Government-insured mortgage bonds, which Grundlach and others have boosted. US mortgage REITs area convenient way to own them, and they large dividends. Read up on them before buying any. They are considered hazardous by many after a nearly ten year bear market. There are two mortgage REIT etfs available in the US, REM and MORT, who own 15-25 of the more prominent mortgage REITs.
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