Putting the pieces together...

Quick note, busy. SPX and TLT remained on buys.

GLD went to confirmed buy. Key resistance at fibo 1206.30 on GCM5 and at 1226 (50%) and 1225 (Gann rung).

As of Friday April 24 2015 Close

Gold measured by NYSE session GLD price data looks down but subject to reversal on a modest range rise.

US Treasury 20+ yr bond measured by TLT looks up.

US stocks measured by SPX cash index looks up but subject to down reversal on a modest range decline.

 

Several Factors In Gold's Way

The system method I use does not predict prices. It is a trend switch that reverses from up to down or down to up very early as the trend is changing. It is entirely measured by daily price parameters, not by volume or any sentiment indicators.

Moving averages are late by definition. Oscillators are often early and often wrong. My method isn't perfect either, and one can lose, but much of the risk day to day is measurable in advance, and outsized moves against the old or new trend can be covered by stop limits beyond the measurements limits.

This explanation is to set the scene by what it's not.

The SPX open is OK, and the high so far today (11:30 AM EDT) is constructive for the long side. Except for Monday to early Tuesday, which was likely a wavelet 2 zigzag, SPX has been cruising up in mid channel since the Fool's Day. This is healthy.

SPX According to The Scotsman

On Saturday's post (4/11/15) I wrote:

For Monday April 13 SPX would be a sell if it opens under 2099 and stays down. One could wait until the close to decide, but an earlier sell with a stop above that level is one way to play it early on.

The 2CS "sentimeter" of daily inverted VXO (old VIX) times daily CBOE call/put ratio summed over the past five days is also signaling caution at almost the identical summed total as at the last two short term high closes of February 24 (2115) and March 20 (2108).

 

I did get the sell confirm yesterday of Friday's close to close out my profitable long position in two separate portions after SPX came back under the open.

As I am writing this today, SPX is rallying, but we could get a setup on the close for another sell signal. If so, I will take it.

I read a Stanley Druckenmiller talk tonight in which described buying US Tsy long bonds in 1981 at 14-15%. Why didn't he hold them and keep adding? 14% per year plus appreciation!
They are a rank speculation NOW but could still rise. Somewhat.

Understanding gold

This SVXY breakout suggests more VIX declines and SPX rises on an INTERMEDIATE term basis.

Bringing Back The Scotsman

For the past four to five years I haven't posted at the blog or elsewhere about a daily method I started to use many decades ago. By using this method, which I named the Bagpiper, it's possible to pick up short term trend changes of a few days to weeks very early, often "turning on a dime" instead of waiting for moving averages or other indicators to catch up.

I know of only one market analyst currently using at least some of the method that progressed from what I first learned. I'm keeping it to myself and have no interest in anything other than using it for myself. But by posting the results, when I have the time, it forces me to spend the time to do it each day. As with my other indicators, the Piper is done entirely on paper by hand. I will only post results for each NYSE session for the S&P 500 index, SPX. The last two signals were a SPX sell at 2079 on March 31 and a buy at 2059 on April 6.

For Monday April 13 SPX would be a sell if it opens under 2099 and stays down. One could wait until the close to decide, but an earlier sell with a stop above that level is one way to play it early on.

The 2CS "sentimeter" of daily inverted VXO (old VIX) times daily CBOE call/put ratio summed over the past five days is also signaling caution at almost the identical summed total as at the last two short term high closes of February 24 (2115) and March 20 (2108).

To be clear, no method is always correct or capable of being executed in real time at the best price. I am not recommending that anyone trade on this. I'm simply using this for mental "exercise" for my own trading account as I do for walking or jogging each day. I don't promise to continue it or to add other asset classes.