The US Treasury 30 year Bond rate is now in early December 2013 very close to where it was in August: just below 4%. Corporate stocks and real estate are up and gold is 14% lower (than in September). All of the negatives from sequestration (cuts) in USGov funding, higher taxes, shutdowns, and higher interest rates, though still low, have not kept the economy from growing.
This chart demonstrates clearly that one needn't be very intelligent to understand why stocks have been rising since 2009. Alas I'm not very intelligent, and as a result I am having my worst year in a decade, down 4%. Bonds and gold have taken a toll. I am holding only 16.5% in stocks with an emphasis on higher yield preferreds, oil and gas trusts, closed ends, and hedged stocks (MFLDX, etc.). 41.4% is in bonds with almost all <2yr effective durations, 32.3% in cash, and 9.8% in gold. My belief that stocks and the dollar will go down and gold up was premature at best. But with 74% in cash and near cash I have the freedom to respond to new events.
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