The SPX declined about 5/8 of its gain from the "orthodox" EWave low of June 23 to the top, a bit more than I expected. The great show of internal strength on July 14 promised a great liftoff in a few days, which we have. Despite monolithic negativism in the "lamestream" media, some money managers have caught on to this bull move. Investors Intelligence Advisors Sentiment poll is bullish now and market-based sentiment is very bearishly configured, which is, of course, bullish.
The long term bullish case for stocks and commodities remains as outlined in the recent Kondratieff update. World demand is there and world liquidity to satisfy demand is there as well. Market choppiness is a good thing because it prolongs trends and keeps them from getting too frothy too soon. As Don Wolanchuk says, the market wants to go from the bargain range to an ultimate top with as few people on board as possible. Bad news and choppiness keeps them home.
Add to those factors this one: both commodity (crude goods) prices and interest rates will have to be much higher than now to choke off corporate profits for any large number of stocks. Remember that it took from 1949 to the late 1960's/early 70's to do that the last time around. And think of 2009-2009 as analogous to 1987-88, as I have insisted here before. Both were financial accidents during the middle periods of long bull markets.
Being in retirement and living off my funds I do not carry a large percentage in generic stock equities as a younger person can and should. I concentrate on income and on inflation protection with lower volatilities. But stocks can add a major lift factor even to portfolios like mine. So I do the analysis and cover stock markets here, but not as regularly as income and inflation assets.
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