UPDATE 9 February 2011

I'm still holding long VXX positions, and I got back long in SIL and GDXJ several days ago. Also I have now sold all of the mREITs including STWD, AGNC, and ANH. Their enornous spreads and profits are due to nearly zero percent interest rates which are subject to change. Also the mREITs are past the late January quarterly mREIT payout time with the next payouts not until April. In a few months I made modest capital gains plus those great dividends up to 19% (annualized) in AGNC. I am still holding my whole position in CMO PRC which pays 9% on a monthly schedule.

I have not touched PTTRX. PIMIX. LSBDX, VFIJX, VFSUX, or VWIAX which are basic, fairly conservative, growth and income funds. Nor have I touched gold or silver bullion.

I'm just about break even on the year 2011 to date, including the HI condo which came out of a money market fund. The only simple, easy, and honest way to do long term comparisons is to add back cumulative withdrawals to your total asset base. It overall reduces both gain and loss percentages, but I think it makes sense. I keep the stats both ways for myself, but add-backs are fairer for long term reporting. As of year end 2010, I was up 9.63% annualized since Labor Day 2003 compared to the Vanguard SP500 index fund VFIAX +5.15%, and PIMCO Bond Fund PTTRX +7.08%. All of these are on a total return basis. I'd like to think I earned that extra 3.5% average gain due to skill, but luck and a stubborn pro-gold stance counted for a lot.

Except for the perma bulls, most analysts I read are as baffled as I am right now. All I can go by are the overbullish indicators and topping oscillators as well as RPW and other patterns. I'm not being hurt so I see no reason to panic into another mode.

The long Treasury bond is threatening to break down seriously under 117, but it has buyers with very deep pockets, namely the FED and ourselves, the taxpayer; so I am not rushing to short it. The bond has had more lives than the fabled cat. My three largest positions are cash, gold bullion, and moderate duration multi-sector bond funds. The rest is a mix of various yield instruments which I have previously detailed.

Sometimes the safest thing to do is to sit and do nothing much at all.