Going into the last two months of a memorable ten year span for US stock equities (and much else), we have heard the grim comparisons. Someone sent me this chart, origin unknown, which startled me. I believe the data are from the long term SP500 reconstruction which has been underway for decades.
The bottom line is that not only has this past ten years produced a negative total return (with all dividends re-invested) for stocks but it is the worst ten year total return in US stock market history back to 1827!
Note, however, that at many of the ten year return low points--1842, 1876, 1896, 1921, and 1938--there are two or three years in a row very close together at the low point. Thus it's probably not necessary to rush into the markets fearing to be left compeletely behind. Only the 1974 low had a substantial initial rise, and even then, you may recall, there was a very large pullback ending in 1976.
It will be quite a long time before market and economic fear subsides. It took three years minimum after 1987 before risk appetite returned. There is always the argument that "it's different this time", and looking at the dates of lows on the chart, I imagine it always is different that time But the long data stream shown by this chart is persuasive that it's also always the same. Unless......unless it's "End-of Series" and the US stock markets and economy are never coming back. Many non-main stream economic and market writers are making that judgment, among them the "gold and guns only" group. But I note that main stream money managers, even those who are extremely negative right now, are still assuming markets will survive and be open for business.
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