Christopher Carolan and Terry Laundry, both highly respected by me and many, many others, are calling for a major stock market high within the next day or so. Carolan's is based on his Spiral Calendar F11 (279 days) from the January 6, 2009 high which comes out tomorrow as I measure it. Laundry's is based on his T Theory forecast from the March 18, 2009 NYSE volume oscillator high which he calculates as coming out October 12-13. You can click through to both of these fine analysts via the "Blogs I Like" list in the left hand edge of this page. (Carolan's site is part subscription but you can get the flavor of his work in the free part. I heartily recommend his classic book, "The Spiral Calendar" which you can buy from him or perhaps through Amazon.)
While a decline can always start at any time and may well do so tomorrow, my sentiment and volume studies do not support an intermediate term decline at this time. The 2CS is at 90.33 as of Friday October 9 and really should be under 80 for an intermediate term high that is going to decline more than 5-8%. The volume studies are also not at normal extremes for a top.
Laundry is expecting a decline of perhaps as much as 16% by mid to late November. He has several audios and pdf file at this time today explaining it all, and if you have the time his free reports are always worth the time and effort. To be sure, Laundry does have a longer term T which doesn't expire until the summer of 2010.
I certainly can't, and it would be absurd to, claim to know their work better than they do, but they have both been so open and kind over the years in making their ideas
available to the investing public, that I have used their work in my own way for over 30 years in Laundry's case to nearly 15 years for Carolan's. I believe that Laundry's T could extend to October 30 which would give the market time to become truly overbought.
Carolan says that in his experience with major Spiral Calendar highs, other usually reliable indicators often fail to warn of impending doom. That's a humbling idea for me. By the way, I do believe that the current decline in T bond futures was predicted by the Carolan F11 (279 days) from the December 30, 2008 bond high.
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