As suggested on August 7, stocks (SPX) made high on that date. The maximum tide count for the next low was a 3/6 (meaning three of six measures at an extreme) on Friday, August 14. However, there were still 2/6 on Saturday. I prefer not to allow any variance but will allow one day +/- in the case of sharp moves. So today could still be the low. Various internals and sentiment factors were slumping from August 7 so I feel comfortable until tomorrow that we have a low today and did not have a high on Friday, August 14. Also we filled one SPX gap today.
The other assets I follow on 24 hour futures charts (silver, gold, crude oil, natural gas, T bonds, Yen, Euro) all have blown through the Friday, August 14 tide date, suggesting a very large position change. If no reversal is made by tomorrow, this could indicate a trend change downward for stocks and gold and silver and an upward trend for bonds and yen. Usually such blow-through events occur in established and very strong moves, in my experience. But one must not be blind to the possibility of a trend change thereby ignoring possibilities and taking big hits.
2CS sentiment remains supportive of further gain in this bull move from March 2008. I have seen a chart, possibly from Fuller, which compiles a weekly combination of P/C ratio, VIX, and four polled sentiment measures which makes the same points I have made about "range shifting" in bear as opposed to bull markets. I am not a fan of polled sentiment, but even this chart I am referring to shows that bullish sentiment is not yet as high as in bear market rallies from 1999-2003. Of course if it is indeed a new bull market, which I doubt, it is FAR from a bullishly exuberant top at this time. So even if the stock trend changes short term to go down and fill other gaps or meet supports, this decline will have pushed out in time the final top for this rally or bull leg from March.
The other assets I follow on 24 hour futures charts (silver, gold, crude oil, natural gas, T bonds, Yen, Euro) all have blown through the Friday, August 14 tide date, suggesting a very large position change. If no reversal is made by tomorrow, this could indicate a trend change downward for stocks and gold and silver and an upward trend for bonds and yen. Usually such blow-through events occur in established and very strong moves, in my experience. But one must not be blind to the possibility of a trend change thereby ignoring possibilities and taking big hits.
2CS sentiment remains supportive of further gain in this bull move from March 2008. I have seen a chart, possibly from Fuller, which compiles a weekly combination of P/C ratio, VIX, and four polled sentiment measures which makes the same points I have made about "range shifting" in bear as opposed to bull markets. I am not a fan of polled sentiment, but even this chart I am referring to shows that bullish sentiment is not yet as high as in bear market rallies from 1999-2003. Of course if it is indeed a new bull market, which I doubt, it is FAR from a bullishly exuberant top at this time. So even if the stock trend changes short term to go down and fill other gaps or meet supports, this decline will have pushed out in time the final top for this rally or bull leg from March.
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