All in all March was the worst month for tide directions in a year. The tidal date was usually marked by a short term move but was weak. The February 26 turn date was still inside the February momentum trend move. Only SPX and yen made credible turns, and even they still made lows on the next turn date of March 4 along with Tbonds and gold. By March 10-11 sustainable moves began up to the 19th when yen, bonds and gold began meaningful declines and SPX a minor decline. From the next turn date of March 27, possibly larger moves have begun. The price chart shows only the last ten trading days on a 24 hour basis. 24 hour ECBOT gold futures (ZB) moved to NYSE-LIFFE over the weekend with no data carry-forward, so that chart at the bottom is fractured in two.
For April I have 4/2, 4/8, 4/17, and the weekend of 4/26-27 as most probable tide turn dates.
April is the second most likely month of the year to show US stock market gains, with December the most likely. Often April gains will extend into May or even to July on occasion, this based on the Dow Jones 30 seasonal chart from 1928.
For a discussion of tide analysis methods I use, see this earlier blog post: http://twocents.blogs.com/weblog/2009/03/next-tide-turn-date.html
Recent Comments