When you are right it always takes a long time to gain your reward. When you're wrong, you are very wrong and often very quickly. Recently I've been right, and so it has been drawn out, ulcer-genic, and not terribly rewarding.
A lot of the news is more favorable now on the economy and the market. Not, mind you, in the press which is just now getting more bearish. But the press are always negative, especially in an election year when the those who control the press sense that negativism works for them. On the other hand, some economic analysts of great skill see an economic bottom possibly being made. Market measures of sentiment such as the 2CS show that we are approaching a top. I tend to be early at tops, but I do trust market-based indicators far more than human opinion.
The 80 week moving average on the SPX is still rising and is just under 1440 now, and so is the December low. If SPX can crack through those levels and seem to stay it could be a new ballgame. If not, I think there is another leg down to crush the bulls.
I have been lightening up in the stock allocation and adding in fixed income via closed end funds which are easy to unload if necessary. I don't really want to be trading, and I am looking at this as "re-balancing" or re-positioning. I haven't yet sold any natural gas trusts. I haven't sold any physical gold. I have some more cash (paying nearly 0% now) which is available for buying.
As you can tell, I am leaning toward recession, or at least a prolonged slowdown. Taking some profits and having some cash to buy bargains seems prudent for a retired person. Now if I could only find the perfect portfolio which never needs touching!! I'm 70-80% there.
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