Three weeks in the watering holes of the Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, and Utah mountains, at the height of lowlands summer heat and the monsoon storms, is a treat. So you may not hear from me until late in the month. I am not bearish generally, and I have tried gradually but persistently to reduce volatility in my overall portfolio in all the ways I have described in the Portfolio Ideas section, and still capture upside gains. But I won't be watching the markets very closely if at all, even though I just upgraded to the new Sidekick 3 from TMobile which is such a delight compared to lugging laptops around. I can slip it in a pocket and I can do 80% of what I could do on a laptop or desktop computer.
But I do see some grounds for caution if one is aggressively long. A four point triangle under new high points (see the 1-2-3 in back numerals ) can be a failure point early in a bear move. Also the May/June decline was steeper and deeper than any we've seen since 2004. There are powerful resistance lines above which I have labelled "EL" from a mentor/teacher I had in the 1990's. And tomorrow there is a time line for change of trend from another teacher of mine.
I am not wanting or trying to be short, just a bit more hedged because of vacation and the TA concerns. I use a combination of BEARX and RYTPX which are short funds of two different types. In a rather low volatility total portfolio I am about 1/3 hedged in addition. As with health and car insurance I hope my paid premiums for this insurance are wasted.
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