From 1996 to 2003 I wrote so much about the Long Wave of Kondratieff in newsletters and internet websites, that I am rather burned out on it. Most people never got it then or will ever do so. There is no point in presenting the history or the cycle. Commonly, people only care about next week at best and have a gloomy opinion of the future in general. "Eat, drink, and be wary."
Since 1999-2003, depending on the asset item, the price patterns since the 1970's through 1990's totally reversed.
Interest in stocks is always most common: they go up most of the time except when deflation is around and when hyperinflation is around. They will go up for the next 10-15 years until inflation gets "too hot". Not in a straight line of course, but trending upwards.
Bonds will trend down over the same period, and the US dollar as well. Euros and Yen and the rest of the paper chits will also trend down with variable rates to each other.
Real estate and gold and most commodities will trend up but with negative interludes.
The cyclical tops in most stuff (physical and paper assets) and the lows in bonds will not occur until 2020-2028, depending on which type of final high we have. We will have two or three major crashes in "emerging country" stuff, and at least one in US and european stuff.
Some stuff you won't want ever to sell in these two decades. Others you can trade if you're bored or need the money.
Bank it. It's as easy as buying bonds in 1981-82 and as profitable, even though the decay of all currencies makes it harder in this phase.
Interest in stocks is always most common: they go up most of the time except when deflation is around and when hyperinflation is around. They will go up for the next 10-15 years until inflation gets "too hot". Not in a straight line of course, but trending upwards.
Bonds will trend down over the same period, and the US dollar as well. Euros and Yen and the rest of the paper chits will also trend down with variable rates to each other.
Real estate and gold and most commodities will trend up but with negative interludes.
The cyclical tops in most stuff (physical and paper assets) and the lows in bonds will not occur until 2020-2028, depending on which type of final high we have. We will have two or three major crashes in "emerging country" stuff, and at least one in US and european stuff.
Some stuff you won't want ever to sell in these two decades. Others you can trade if you're bored or need the money.
Bank it. It's as easy as buying bonds in 1981-82 and as profitable, even though the decay of all currencies makes it harder in this phase.
This is not a prediction of the future. It is a description of the controlling cycle of economics throughout history and how investment assets react to that cycle.
Keep your eye on the ball and invest accordingly. Enjoy life and accept the fact that things change.
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