The analysis and timelines we
outlined in July have worked,
albeit slowly. Instead of partying or patting ourselves on the back, it's beginning to be time to look for the next buy. It may be in a month or two from now, or it may be tomorrow. No one will call us up and whisper the buy to us on the appointed day. There is a timeline for today or tomorrow on the chart. See if you can find it. Always click on the charts for larger pop-ups.
The sentiment oscillator (not shown) is in a zone consistent with being near a low. The maroon thick line is the time and price bisect of the July 7- August 3 range. These lines always have the power to support, as did the bright red one at the April low and many, many others in the blue series at MyCharts http://tinyurl.com/3hyjc and the archives here.
Despite seasonal charts and market lore on the subject, August has not been a particularly bad month for stocks since 1990 except for 2001, 1998, and 1993. August has also seen some key gold lows and agricultural lows, so it is wise not to write it off without due observation.
Today also saw over one million SP e-mini's trade during what a has been a very dull vacation period. The last day with a front month's contract trading over one million was July 7. The one before that was near the April low. Keeping our wits about us when everyone else is losing his is key to trading. If the market goes down it goes down, but don't be paralyzed or incredulous if it doesn't.
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