All the elements for a pullback are in place for this coming week. The expanding triangles or Reverse Point Waves of several degrees can be seen in the longer term charts below.
The 22 day (one month) momentum of cumulative SP futures volume has been deteriorating for two months.
There are several geometric time lines due on Monday and again on Thursday. They are visible on the chart, and I will not go into them at this time.
My sentiment measures have finally got themselves into numerical territories resembling last December, and January, February and March of this year.
Elliott Wave is not something I will cover very often as it is nearly ubiquitous in market analysis as well as contentious and wildly variable in results from different analysts. That said, my view is that the bear market from 1999 or 2000 to 2002 was followed by a new bull market. A major upwave of that bull market may be completing here or perhaps a simple pullback before an extension of this first wave.
I do not buy the deflationist depression or credit collapse scenarios favored by many market philosophers. I see the markets and economies of the world as being in the early phases of a long term growth period which will have occasional hot and cold periods. The evidence of bonds and gold for the past 12-18 months suggests a cooling off. Whether this will result in a return of the "Goldilocks Scenario" of restrained or more modest inflationary growth, or go instead to an eventual recession isn't clear to me yet. Recessions do of course occur in healthy growing economic environments, as we know from the decades of the 1950's through 1970's.
As always we will await the judgement of the markets and the economy and hope for the wisdom to adapt to that judgement quickly and profitably.
Recent Comments