the question unanswered there (or here in the last fed discussion/reply, though asked, and yes i DID notice ... lol) was how the low long term rates do not fit into the longwave view, herein and heretofore espoused, and the predictions for many, many moons of higher yields as the key ingredient in the inflationist gumbo.
something aisn't right, beauregard !
Posted by: seacucumber | June 15, 2005 12:43 AM
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Every long term trend has large contra-trend reactions. In gold we have been playing the "little winter" scenario for a year or more (after a run from 1999), and in bonds for "a while". Unfortunately copper, iron ore, coal, and petroleum won't dance that tune. Nor CPI, PPI, GDP price deflator, etc. In brief, we have been in a contra-trend period this year with players trying out the old idea that the FED or someone or something will overshoot and cause the deflation bogeyman to return. Everyone has been rushing around rebalancing and re-allocating portfolios, causing waves in the bathtub. But nothing has changed fundamentally, and the rubber ducky is still afloat even in the bathtub.
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