The bond has fallen. Can it get back up?
I had not been watching the weekly chart of the US Treasury long bond, and I missed the fork or preceding range bisect target. But I was lucky enough to have exited all my EDV (Vanguard 25 year T Bond strips) within a few ticks of the high. This was purely a trader's momentum reflex profit grab. I have been buying EDV back, and am under water right now. I expect a bounce up to 152-152.60 in $USB, and then we'll see. Unless gold and oil go up significantly and the dollar and stocks down, it's hard to believe the 34 year bond bull market is finally over.
As for generic US stock equities, my VTI analysis of last week has played well, and I covered my hedge position in TVIX, the double short ETF of short term VIX. Considering the micro-plunge in most indexes, VIX didn't do very much, so I'm inclined to expect a bounce up. These very long expanding or rounding tops are emotionally exhausting, and it's best to be philosophical and not too committed either way until some confirmation of a breakout upward or a final breakdown.
Sentiment "divergence" is shown by the inverted VIX ETF, SVXY, with VTI closes in the green line. This phenomenon is rarely mentioned and is contrary to "contrarian" thinking that bullish sentiment is greatest at THE top. Well it usually isn't.
My five fairly conservative stock mutual funds are BERIX, FPACX, VMNVX, VWIAX, and HSGFX. Each of these hedges stock risk in a different manner. They are all still in my "backpack", although VMNVX is a sell candidate on a good bounce since I have no history on it in a bear market.